Methodology

Macro Index answers four questions per central bank: what the policy rate is, when the bank decides next, what it decided before, and which of its own pages publishes each decision. It says "not yet" rather than guess.

HealthCorrectionsdataset.json

Calendar dates and observed decisions

A meeting on a bank's published calendar is an expectation. A decision becomes a fact only once its statement has been opened on the bank's own page and the decision read there; the record then carries observed, with the rate before and after, the direction and the statement URL. Unscheduled (inter-meeting) decisions are on no calendar, so they are listed only once observed. A moved meeting keeps the date it moved from.

Dates are the decision day, local to the bank; for a two-day meeting, the day the decision is announced (Norges Bank, for example, announces the day after its committee meets). Announcement times are UTC instants converted from the bank's local time; where a bank publishes no time, none is shown.

History facts

Days since the last change, consecutive holds and the counts of past move sizes are computed from observed decisions only, never from calendar dates. The rate series is the bank's own history of the rate in force from each effective date.

Sources: copy, never construct

Every URL is copied from the bank's own index, feed or sitemap, and opened before it is cited. Each kind of page a bank publishes (decision statement, calendar, rate history, press feed) is recorded with where its URLs are found and a pattern for recognising one, never for building one. News sites and aggregators are not settlement sources: the issuer is the authority.

Reads and the resolvable bar

An HTTP 200 is not readability. A read asks a reader to extract one fact from a real page of a kind, and records it as right, wrong or void. A source is resolvable only once its reads total at least 5 right and 0 wrong. The publisher gate computes this; it is never set by hand. A question about a decision settles only on an observed decision whose statement source is resolvable.

Bank terms

Central banks set their own terms for reusing their pages, and some restrict it: non-commercial use only, link only, no reproduction, or permission before linking internal pages. Each bank page shows the bank's own terms, summarised, with a link to them. We copy only the bare facts of a decision (the date, the rate and the direction) and never the text of a statement. For a bank that asks for permission before its internal pages are linked, URLs are shown as text rather than links. The site carries no ads and charges nothing: it is a non-commercial reference.

Neutrality

Facts and calendars only: no forecasts, no odds, no probabilities, no opinions on what a bank should or will do.

Licence

Our own data is CC BY 4.0, © MC² Ventures: credit "Macro Index" and link to this site. Pages we link to belong to their publishers and keep their own terms.

API and MCP

Plain JSON with CORS, no key needed. Every response is {data, meta}, and meta.dataset_version says what was read.

MCP (Streamable HTTP, stateless) at https://www.macroindex.org/mcp, with the tools upcoming_decisions, bank_status, check_question, resolution_sources, submit_correction and dataset_health. check_question refuses a decision that has not been observed. Also: OpenAPI · llms.txt · the whole dataset.